Last week, a friend who dabbles in the memory storage market mentioned that he believes prices in the storage market always exhibit a time-lag effect. For instance, for a certain component: in the first week, when he quoted 5 US dollars, the customer only accepted 3 US dollars; in the second week, when he quoted 8 US dollars, the customer agreed to 5 US dollars; by the third week, when he offered 12 US dollars, the customer was willing to accept 8 US dollars... In fact, this scenario indicates that the component is in an upward price cycle. Today's peak becomes tomorrow's low. Take the MT53E512M32D1ZW-046 WT:B1 as shown —its "tearful sale price" at the end of October turned out to be a "steal" in mid-November. In just three weeks, the price nearly tripled, and by last weekend, quotes for this component had reached 30 US dollars.
So what's the allure of trading components in such upward price cycles? It lies in locking in orders when the price is between 1 and 9 (on a hypothetical scale), say at 3 or 4, then selling when it climbs to 7 or 8. Within just two to three weeks, you can secure a price difference of two to three times, or even more. This is the reason why stockpilers are so drawn to this practice.
Of course, it’s crucial to analyze data carefully and avoid overcommitting during downward price cycles. As for the critical turning point of this round of ups and downs in the storage market, current comprehensive market assessments—combined with the explosive news of ChangXin Memory Technology launching DDR5 (which may effectively deter further fires at certain foreign storage factories)—have led some players to predict that this storage market rally may last until April-June next year (market information is for reference only and not an authoritative conclusion).
In fact, this phenomenon isn’t unique to the storage sector; many practices in the broader IC (Integrated Circuit) industry follow a similar pattern. For example, during the upward price cycles of ADI and Nexperia this year, it was common for channels and suppliers to engage in order flipping and price hikes. Seasoned players would choose to collaborate closely with channels to profit together; otherwise, they’d be merely acting as intermediaries relying solely on industry connections. However, acting as an intermediary is particularly challenging in the storage market, as it requires significantly larger capital investment. Many small and micro IC intermediaries simply lack the financial capacity to participate—this is why you may watch the memory market soar daily but struggle to enter it.
('Carrying baskets'is the image of the public's'reverse trading'of traders
Statement-It is like "carrying a basket"to transfer goods between different markets andentities,without directly creating physical value(such as production and research anddevelopment),but by identifying and capturing opportunities for supply-demand mismatch,achieving short-term transfer of ownership of goods and making profits.
In academic contexts,similar concepts include "middlemanarbitrage,""speculative trading,"and "spread trading
Trading),But 'basket lifting'emphasizes more on operationalflexibility and asset light attributes(no need for self ownedwarehouses or production lines,relying on funds and channels).
